Insights

Recommendations

It seems a bit trivial to discuss economics and investment strategy in the middle of a pandemic.  What’s really important anyway?  Where interest rates are headed or how to remain healthy while this invisible killer terrorizes the globe?  One thing we can do is explain what we...

As we monitor economic activity and the impact on credit spreads, we have seen and will continue to see data that is much worse than any of us have seen before. Equity markets expect this which is why they are rallying today despite a jobless claims report that...

I want to share something important that is happening in the investment grade corporate credit market. I track the option adjusted spread (OAS) which is essentially the additional yield the investor receives versus a risk-free Treasury security. Prior to the COVID outbreak, the OAS for the...

Recommendations

Interest rates declined 90 basis points in 2019.  While current levels seem low (5-year Treasury note yield at 1.60%), remember in 2012 the same Treasury had a yield 0.50%.  Unless the duration of your bond portfolio is...

Economic Overview

The U.S. economy chugs along at a 2.0% pace (GDP) with a quarterly range between 1% and 3%.  Recall GDP advanced 3.1% in the 1st quarter and the 2nd quarter was reported at 2.0%.  Expectations for the 3rd quarter are centered around...