Insights

State of the Markets

Let’s begin by reviewing what happened in the capital markets and the economy over the last quarter of 2020.  Short-term interest rates barely changed while the 10-year Treasury note yield increased 23 basis points, and the yield on the long bond...

Strategy

The first doses of the vaccine were administered in late December.  Since there will be at least two companies with approved vaccines, and likely more than three, the most vulnerable should be protected by the end of the first quarter.  This should result...

State of the Markets

A recap of the changes that occurred over the 3rd quarter in the bond market and the equity market seems to be appropriate given this year’s unusual pandemic situation.  Treasury interest rates barely changed during the 3rd quarter.  The yield on...

Recommendations

It seems a bit trivial to discuss economics and investment strategy in the middle of a pandemic.  What’s really important anyway?  Where interest rates are headed or how to remain healthy while this invisible killer terrorizes the globe?  One thing we can do is explain what we...

As we monitor economic activity and the impact on credit spreads, we have seen and will continue to see data that is much worse than any of us have seen before. Equity markets expect this which is why they are rallying today despite a jobless claims report that...

I want to share something important that is happening in the investment grade corporate credit market. I track the option adjusted spread (OAS) which is essentially the additional yield the investor receives versus a risk-free Treasury security. Prior to the COVID outbreak, the OAS for the...